En is a kind of card game that has been played since the Middle Ages. It’s also known as noughts and crosses, French solitaire or patience. The object of the game is to move all cards into four piles: “En” (the foundation), forming an unbroken line; Kings; Queens; Jacks and 10-pointed stars called “Naughts”.
The European soccer season’s third international break is one for forecasting. You’ve completed almost a third of your club season, the stakes of your campaign have been established, and the January transfer market is less than two months away. It’s time to work out your requirements and the quick fixes you’re willing to make in the next weeks.
While massive transactions are uncommon in January, it is an excellent chance for teams with the financial means to fill certain gaps. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Europe’s wealthiest clubs: What exactly do they require? Within a reasonable pricing range, who could they approach?
For a work like this, we have a number of tools at our disposal: The DAVIES model by Sam Goldberg and Mike Imburgio, as well as the StatsBomb percentile profiles at FBref.com, provide valuable analytical input. Let’s make some movements using these tools, and try as hard as we can to identify players worth $30 million or less on Transfermarkt (or, for the “cheap” additions, $3 million or less).
Premier League | Spanish LaLiga | German Bundesliga | Italian Serie A | French Ligue 1 | Premier League | Spanish LaLiga | German Bundesliga | Italian Serie A | French Ligue 1
The most pressing need is for midfield stability.
Mario Pasalic, Atalanta, is a proposed addition. Renaud Ripart, Troyes, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
Arsenal are on a roll, having gone undefeated in all competitions since October and climbing to fifth place in the Premier League. The good news is that they’re hot despite midfielder Granit Xhaka’s MCL injury and star signing Martin Odegaard’s lack of performance (1.48 chances and 0.11 xA+xG per 90 minutes). The bad news is that Xhaka is injured, and Odegaard hasn’t been very effective. If they’re serious about competing for a top-four finish, they’ll need another seasoned ball progressor to partner with Thomas Partey, who is in excellent form.
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Pasalic, who is 26 years old, would be a fascinating character to follow. He was a part of Chelsea’s loan army and is now in his fourth season at Atalanta, where he has continued to improve his production, averaging 0.49 xA+xG per 90 last season and 0.56 this season. He’s adaptable, experienced, and a natural flyer. Ripart would be fascinating to see. Over the previous three Ligue 1 seasons, he has averaged eight goals and 23 chances created each season, and he has already played flank, midfield, and center-forward for Troyes this season.
Chelsea
The most pressing need is for some quality crosses.
Teji Savanier, Montpellier, is a proposed addition. Adri Embarba, Espanyol, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
Chelsea is the richest club in the world and currently sits atop the Premier League standings, three points ahead of Manchester City is a Premier League club based in and West Ham United. They have youthful and senior alternatives at practically every position, and they’ve kept scoring despite the absence of striker Romelu Lukaku due to injury.
They could need a little more diversity in buildup and assault for all of their weapons, however. They don’t try or land many crosses (11th in crosses per 90, 20th in completion rate), but Savanier is flexible, prolific (2.7 chances and 0.51 xA+xG per 90), and one of Europe’s most active and effective crossers. If the club wants to save money, which isn’t in owner Roman Abramovich’s DNA, the veteran Embarba has been productive (2.1 chances, 0.34 xA+xG) for a squad that isn’t.
The most pressing need is for midfield depth.
Florian Neuhaus, Borussia Monchengladbach, is a proposed inclusion. Sebastian Rudy, TSG Hoffenheim, is a proposed “value” addition.
2 Related
It was surprising that Liverpool did not replace midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum when he moved to PSG, instead bringing in merely RB Leipzig’s Ibrahima Konate as a centre-back. Internal possibilities seemed to satisfy the club, but injuries have thrown that strategy into disarray. Harvey Elliott is sidelined for the foreseeable future, Thiago has been in and out, and Jordan Henderson is the Reds’ sole midfielder who has played more than 60% of the Premier League minutes. It’s basically worked out now that Liverpool is just four points behind Chelsea, but it still seems like a risky move.
Neuhaus, who is 24 years old, would be a welcome addition. He’s the Bundesliga’s equivalent of Declan Rice, a solid defensive midfielder who wins duels and recovers balls, but he’s also scored three goals and created 14 opportunities in little over 1,000 minutes in a central midfield spot since the start of 2020-21. Rudy, 31, is a consistent opportunity creator who has scored twice in 530 minutes this season.
Manchester City
The most pressing need is completion.
Youssef En-Nesyri, Sevilla, is a proposed addition. New York City FC’s Valentin Castellanos is proposed as a “value” acquisition.
“The club tried and failed to capture Spurs’ Harry Kane this summer, but what they truly need is…” I’d love to be able to say. Isn’t it fun to be unpredictable? But, about a third of the way through the season, City’s most pressing need is one that can be predicted. They’ve created 24.2 xG in 11 Premier League games, which is the second-highest total, but they’ve only scored 22, which is the fourth-lowest total. This isn’t a crisis, but it is an area where there is room for development, and En-Nesyri would be a good interim. (Perhaps there’s too much upside: His Transfermarkt value is an unheard-of $44 million. But, really, what is money?)
En-Nesyri is a good defender who isn’t much of a passer, but they already have creators; they need a finisher, and En-Nesyri has converted 36.3 xG into 38 goals in his four LaLiga seasons. (During that time, he’s also converted 3.3 xG into six goals in Champions League play.) If City were to conserve money for a Kane or Erling Haaland push later, Castellanos, who plays for City’s Major League Soccer sister club, is a defensively aggressive defender who just won the MLS Golden Boot with 19 goals.
The most pressing need is for ball advancement.
Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch or PSV Eindhoven’s Ibrahim Sangare are two potential additions. Dani Parejo, Villarreal, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Jadon Sancho were undoubtedly pricey summer recruits with a lot of potential. They were also perplexing: United now has more world-class (or close to it) attackers than they can deploy at any one moment, while still relying on a less-than-stellar midfield to get the ball to them. They’re 13th in the league in both possessions begun in the offensive third (6.2) and passes allowed per defensive action, thanks to the addition of the low-pressure Ronaldo (14.0).
Grillitsch, who is 26 years old, would aid with both offense and defense. His 89 percent pass completion percentage (min. 500 minutes) ranks fourth among Bundesliga midfielders, and he excels in both duels and interventions. When it comes to the short term, the 32-year-old Parejo is constant in his ball advance, averaging 2.0 chances produced per 90 minutes.
Midfield upwards is the most pressing need.
Cagliari, Nahitan Nandez, Nahitan Nandez, Nahitan Nandez, Nahitan Nandez, Nahitan New York Red Bulls’ John Tolkin is a proposed “value” acquisition.
Antonio Conte began his Spurs squad in a 3-4-3 system against Vitesse in the Europa League and a 3-4-2-1 formation against Everton in his first two games as manager. Sergio Reguilon and Emerson, both full-backs, supplied the main width, despite the fact that they are significantly more “back” than “wing” in wing-back duties.
The club would benefit from having a more aggressive option in the wide portions of the play, and whether his side has the ball or not, Nandez, 25, will attack. He is in the 96th percentile among fullbacks in ball pressures (63rd percentile among midfielders), 81st in progressive pass received (85th), and 79th percentile in shot-creating actions, according to FBref.com’s StatsBomb scouting reports (68th). Up and down the right touchline, he adds both experience and intensity. If Spurs want a more raw injection of energy, Tolkin (85th percentile among full-backs in pressures, 78th in shot-creating actions) might be a fascinating alternative to investigate.
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THURSDAY, NOV. 11 • Ethiopia takes on Ghana in a friendly match (8 a.m. ET) • Zimbabwe vs. South Africa (2 p.m. ET) • Senegal vs. Togo (2 p.m. ET) • Portugal vs. Ireland (2:45 p.m. ET) • Greeks vs. Spaniards (2:45 p.m. ET) • Liechtenstein vs. Germany (2:45 p.m. ET)
Djibouti against. Algeria, FRIDAY, NOV. 12 (8 a.m. ET) • Morocco vs. Sudan (2 p.m. ET) • Egypt vs. Angola (2 p.m. ET) • Albania vs. England (2:45 p.m. ET) • Mexico vs. USMNT (9 p.m. ET)
Malawi vs. Cameroon, SUNDAY, NOV. 13 (8 a.m. ET) • Liberia vs. Nigeria is a matchup between two African countries (11 a.m. ET) • Mozambique vs. Ivory Coast (2 p.m. ET) • Kazakhstan vs. France (2:45 p.m. ET) • Netherlands vs. Montenegro (2:45 p.m. ET) • Estonia vs. Belgium (2:45 p.m. ET)
The most pressing need is defensive solidity.
Nikola Milenkovic, Fiorentina, Fiorentina, Fiorentina, Fiorentina, Fiorentina, Brendan Chardonnet, Brest, proposed a “value” addition.
Diego Simeone, known for his stinginess, has gradually tried to open up Atleti’s game over the years, and they won LaLiga in 2020-21 with a rather advantageous combination: first in goals allowed, second in goals scored. The balance is wrong this year, as they are second in goals scored but ninth in goals allowed. They still allow the fewest shots, but their opponents are producing better-looking shots. This has been a problem in the Champions League, as they have enabled Liverpool to score five goals in two games.
There’s enough of fault to go around: goalkeeper Jan Oblak hasn’t been as good as he has been in the past, and Simeone’s 3-1-4-2 and 3–4-2-1 formations are susceptible to counterattacks and high-quality opportunities if wingers Yannick Carrasco and (particularly) Kieran Trippier are caught too much upfield. But one of Atleti’s main problems right now is that its centre-backs, Stefan Savic, Jose Gimenez, and Mario Hermoso, haven’t lived up to expectations. Bringing in competition in the shape of the towering Milenkovic or the smaller and more aggressive Chardonnet may be the best short-term strategy.
The most pressing need is for more choices at centre-back.
AS Monaco’s Benoit Badiashile or Borussia Monchengladbach’s Matthias Ginter are two candidates for inclusion. Gian Marco Ferrari, Sassuolo, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
Barca’s need for a defensive reinforcement makes more sense than Atleti’s. Outside of new striker Memphis Depay, their back line is a jumbled mess of younger pieces finding their way (Sergino Dest, Eric Garcia, Ronald Araujo) and veterans well into their 30s (Gerard Pique and Jordi Alba, plus Sergio Busquets in defensive midfield), and their entire roster is made up of players outside of the normal prime window of ages 24 to 28. Worse, they don’t have a lot of cash to make big-ticket purchases.
Ginter, 27, may be beyond of their financial range as well — Xavi is said to have a transfer budget of $10 million for January — but he’s more reasonable than other alternatives. He’s a possession-oriented centre-back who’s more powerful and sturdy in the air than Garcia, and although he’s not a true defensive stopper, he’s a step above of Garcia and Araujo. And if he’s too expensive, Ferrari, 29, would be a good stand-in. He is a high-end buildup player who gets in the way of a lot of passes.
Another danger on the right is the most pressing requirement.
AC Milan’s Davide Calabria is a proposed inclusion. Fabien Centonze, Metz, proposed a “value” enhancement.
Despite a lack of recent transfer activity, Real Madrid is gradually shifting from old to new. While veterans still dominate in midfield, Federico Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga are in place for the future. Vinicius Junior is enjoying a ferocious breakthrough at the age of 21 (he’s on pace for 22 goals and 60 chances created in league play alone), and while veterans still dominate in midfield, Federico Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga are in place for the future. They are, however, a little lopsided. Although Vinicius is on the left side of the assault, no one has stood out on the right.
Calabria has a chance. He’s capable of playing as a right-back or right wing-back, is a dynamo in terms of pressure, and is a ferocious passer. He is, after all, Milan’s captain and may be hesitant to go. If that doesn’t work out, or if Los Blancos want to preserve their money for a larger transfer down the road, Centonze fits the same mold: combative in defense, innovative in attack.
Right-back is the most pressing need.
Kevin Mbabu, VfL Wolfsburg, is a proposed inclusion. Justin Che, FC Dallas, has proposed a “value” addition.
Bayern Munich is one of just a few clubs in Europe who can claim to be the greatest right now. In the last six months, they have only lost two games. They top the Bundesliga and required just four games to qualify for the Champions League knockout rounds (all victories, with a 17-2 goal difference). One Manchester City and Chelsea have greater depth, and the only position where they might need some support right now is at right-back, where Benjamin Pavard is rediscovering his form and Josip Stanisic has earned more playing time than anticipated recently.
They might attempt to do what Bayern does and steal valuable components from their opponents. Mbabu is a reliable, progressive passer who has put in a lot of hard effort in defense for Wolfsburg over the years, despite the fact that he is still just 26 years old. Longer term, they may look to Che, a 17-year-old who played for Bayern Munich’s U19s last winter before returning to MLS and combining a slew of defensive interventions with three assists and an 81 percent offensive completion rate. He won’t be Alphonso Davies, but he’ll be good.
The most pressing need is for a centre-back.
Gleison Bremer, Torino, is a proposed addition. Nayef Aguerd, Stade Rennais, is a proposed “value” enhancement.
AC Milan
The most pressing need is for a younger finisher.
Lille, Jonathan David, Jonathan David, Lille, Lille, Lille, Lille, Lille, Lille, Lille, Lille Ricardo Pepi, FC Dallas, is a proposed “value” acquisition.
Milan and Napoli have raced ahead of the pack in Serie A, seven points clear of third-place Inter, and Milan has done it without much of a striker presence, scoring the second-most goals in the league. At centre-forward, veterans Olivier Giroud (35), Ante Rebic (28) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (40) have dominated the most of the minutes, but have generated just as many opportunities (28 total chances created) as they have scored (eight goals). It’s working, with offensive midfielders Rafael Leao and Brahim Diaz flourishing, but bringing in a striker in his prime wouldn’t be a bad idea.
David is a touch out of the price range ($38.5 million market value), but he’s much too good of a match to be overlooked. The 24-year-old Canadian international excels under pressure and has scored at least 12 goals in three consecutive seasons, dating back to his days at Gent. It’ll be four in a row shortly. Alternatively, why not join the Pepi bandwagon in the front car? The 18-year-old American scored 13 goals and created 18 opportunities while also excelling in the press. For the El Paso native, studying under Giroud would be virtually ideal.
The most pressing need is for younger choices to be found around the country.
Lyon’s Leo Dubois is a proposed addition. Julian Araujo, LA Galaxy, has proposed a “value” addition.
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Inter’s early season has been a huge success, all things considered. They had to replace Lukaku, Achraf Hakimi, and manager Conte, but they’ve only lost once in Serie A and have climbed to second place in their Champions League group after a sluggish start.
However, they rely heavily on 32-year-old Ivan Perisic and 31-year-old Matteo Darmian in the wide midfielder positions. Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries have the potential to grow into bigger roles, but Dubois, 27, has developed into one of Ligue 1’s top passers and could complement star midfielders Nicolo Barella and Marcelo Brozovic admirably.
Go young if Lyon can’t handle losing another star. The 20-year-old Araujo is a force on the right side of the field, ranking in the top 30 in both assists and ball recoveries in Major League Soccer.
The most pressing need is for a future goalie.
Unai Simon, Athletic Bilbao, is a proposed inclusion. Carlos Coronel, FC Salzburg, has been proposed as a “value” addition.
Juve’s first season under Max Allegri has been a disaster. The Bianconeri have won four Champions League games, but they are now in ninth position in Serie A, four points below the top four. They aren’t capitalizing on their opportunities, but their opponents are finding it much too easy to produce quality chances and get balls past goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny. He’s recovered somewhat from a shaky start, but it’s brought attention to the fact that he’s 31, and there’s no clear successor in the wings.
Simon may be able to take advantage of a great buy-low chance. Following an outstanding 2019-20 season (8.3 goals avoided, according to StatsPerform), he struggled through a less spectacular 2020-21 (-2.7), but after a good Euro 2020, he’s back on the right side of the goals prevented line — +0.4 thus far in 2021-22. And Coronel, a much cheaper 24-year-old on loan with the New York Red Bulls, is coming off an incredibly remarkable MLS season: 8.2 goals avoided with strong sweeper-keeper tendencies.
Napoli
Another offensive midfielder is the most pressing need.
Real Betis’ Nabil Fekir is a proposed inclusion. Aleksandar Katai, Crvena Zvezda, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
This seems to be Napoli’s time. The Partenopei have blasted out of the gate under new boss Luciano Spalletti after a few of seasons of outstanding performance and some disappointing wasted chances. The lineup has been consistent, and they’re combining a strong offensive (third in xG) with outstanding defense (first in xG allowed). Lorenzo Insigne and Victor Osimhen are blossoming, and Hirving Lozano has two goals as a super-sub, but depth might become a concern over time, particularly if they make a long Europa League run.
Fekir, 28, can play as an offensive midfielder or winger, and although he takes a lot of low-percentage shots, he also generates a lot of opportunities for others (he’s second in LaLiga with 33), giving him depth and promise. If they need a more cheap bench option, the well-traveled 30-year-old Katai has scored in almost every league in the world, from MLS to LaLiga, and would give a solid hand in the event of an injury.
Paris Saint-Germain is a French football club.
Extra defensive vigor is the most pressing need.
Boubacar Kamara, Marseille, is a proposed addition. Andrei Girotto, Nantes, has proposed a “value” enhancement.
Even if they can’t have Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Neymar on the field at the same time, PSG is doing fine: they’re 10 points ahead in Ligue 1 and have gone undefeated in Champions League play thanks to flashes of brilliance. However, they conceded four goals in each of their two UCL encounters against RB Leipzig, and they’ve only kept three clean sheets in their last 12 games across all competitions. They concede a lot of shots (0.144 per possession, 15th in Ligue 1), which is excessive given that they have two of the finest goalkeepers in the world (Keylor Navas and Gianluigi Donnarumma).
Then it’s time to steal from a foe. Kamara is one of France’s greatest young defenders, capable of both interceptions and passes, and with experienced addition Sergio Ramos battling injury, Kamara would be a good match next to Marquinhos. Girotto is older (29), but he is also more aggressive and deadly in combat.
